Seeing the Unseen: Data from Drones Predicting the Unpredictable in Avalanche Safety
Nestled in the Colorado San Juan Forest beside the oh-so-stunning Hermosa Cliffs, my typical morning often began contemplating life with an amazing coffee, awestruck with Gods creation. One morning I went outside, and the view froze my breath away.
So, I’m standing there in the Colorado San Juan Forest, sipping the most amazing coffee right? The Hermosa Cliffs are in front of me, draped in this stunning snowscape- it’s a sight to behold. Could it be any more perfect?
A Spark of Curiosity
So , with coffee and perfection in hand, and that familiar warmth kicking in, it hits me – look at those cliffs. They're soaking up the sun's rays, and warming up. It’s a natural event that's gone completely unnoticed amidst all this other beauty; a physical experience happening right before my eyes, and yet, it’s being overlooked. (I'm sure you can tell that the coffees kicked in by now!)
Well, as the caffeine continues to warm up perfection and my brain, along with all the enjoyable creative and innovative physiological affects we get from that; I started thinking about the physical affects that the rocks on these cliffs get when a lot of sun warms them up. That’s got to affect the snow sitting on top of them, right? It’s like nature’s own little physical experience that nobody’s really paying attention to.
Tech Meets Nature
Here’s where it gets interesting. What if we use drones – not your average drones, but drones decked out with sophisticated thermal cameras – to actually ‘see’ what we can’t see in our visible spectrum. These thermal cameras can detect infrared radiation (a form of heat energy) and convert it into an electronic signal, which is then processed to produce a thermal image or video. Could this data intelligence be helpful to predict avalanches?
To explore this thermal narrative (albeit on a very small sampling scale), I readied my drone, armed with a sophisticated thermal imaging camera, laser range finder, and powerful visual sensor. Then, I launched its first mission playfully, with hopes to realize a new ‘Drones for Good’ use case, that might be able to save lives by capturing data intelligence that could be used to predict avalanches.
Once airborne and peeking through the thermal lens, I could easily see the infrared camera converting the radiation into detailed heat maps, while laying out really cool and helpful temperature gradients information. I made sure that each observation, was meticulously logged with temperature data, and tethered to a precise GPS location. For consistency, each mission was autonomous to ensure that I captured a reliable dataset that could be used as data intelligence for avalanche predictive data.
A Recipe for Avalanche Stew
Through the lens of this advanced thermal imaging technology, I was witnessing a remarkable interplay of heat energy and its direct impact on snowpack stability—a crucial factor in avalanche prediction.
Photography by Jay Shears
The Avalanche Prediction Recipe - 5 key ingredients
Welcome to the nature's kitchen, where the recipe for an avalanche stew is far more intricate than you might expect. The following are 5 key ingredients for a delicate blend of circumstances for the creation of this natural phenomenon. From the solar-absorbing characteristics of rugged rock faces, to the subtle yet significant shifts in snowpack temperatures, every element contributes to the triggering of an avalanche. Here's how they come together in this complex and often unpredictable Avalanche Stew Recipe:
Number 1 - Solar Absorption and Temperature Differential:
The rock faces, with their rugged surfaces, act as excellent solar absorbers. The darker colors of the rock mean they have a lower albedo and thus absorb more solar radiation compared to the surrounding snow. In the thermal image (above), we see that these areas are significantly warmer (evidenced by the red and yellow hues) compared to the cooler areas (shown in purple and blue) where the snow reflects most of the solar energy. This differential creates a micro-environment where the interface between the warm rock and the cold snow becomes critical.
Number 2 - Thermal Conduction and Snow Melting:
The heat conducted from the rocks to the adjacent snow creates a melt layer. This process is most intense where we see the highest temperatures (the red areas) just above the snow line. As the rock heats, it transfers some of that energy to the snow, melting it from below and creating a lubricated layer that can significantly reduce friction.
Number 3 - Subsurface Water Layer and Slab Formation:
The meltwater percolates down, forming a subsurface layer that can act as a sliding plane for overlying snow. If the snowpack above is cohesive, it can form a slab. Slabs are particularly dangerous because they can remain in place, looking stable until a critical threshold is reached, after which they can release suddenly and with little warning.
Number 4 - Temperature Gradients and Weak Layers:
The varied temperature gradients across the snowpack can cause different layers within the snow to have varying strengths. The thermal imagery shows that the temperature is not uniform, suggesting the potential for weak layer formation within the snowpack. This stratification is a critical factor in triggering an avalanche.
Number 5 - Sudden Temperature Changes and Snowpack Stress:
Rapid heating can cause stress within the snowpack as different layers expand at different rates. The ‘sudden warming trend’ noted in the image can be a precursor to slab release, especially if the warming is rapid enough that the snowpack cannot adjust smoothly to the change.
Predictive Avalanche Data Opportunity?
By analyzing these temperature patterns over time and correlating them with known avalanche events, we can begin to predict when and where the risk of avalanche is highest. Key indicators would be a rapid rise in rock surface temperature, the persistence of warm conditions that allow for deep thawing, and the presence of a significant temperature gradient within the snowpack.
With just a little more research, I was able to learn that this discovery wasn't merely anecdotal, it was substantiated by existing geophysical principles such as:
The Friction Phenomenon - Elevated rock temperatures compromise the snow's structural integrity, escalating slide risks.
Cycles of Melt & Refreeze - Such cycles, well-documented in glaciology, are known to breed weak layers within snowpacks, magnifying instability.
Thermal Benchmarks - Certain critical temperature thresholds, when surpassed, accentuate avalanche susceptibilities.
“As we come to the end of this very cool (pun intended!) journey of discovery; I can’t help but marvel at the extraordinary dance between the subtleties of nature and the sheer power of technology. This all began with a simple act – a moment of perfect reflection of nature and a good cup of coffee – and it has unfolded into a groundbreaking revelation. This is a new realm, where predictive analytics born from thermal imaging, can offer us actionable insights; deep enough to transform the entire landscape of avalanche safety.”
Imagine, real-time temperature maps, not just as fancy graphics, but as crucial, life-saving tools, pinpointing potential danger zones. This isn't just advancement; it's a revolution in how we interact with, and safeguard against the unpredictable forces of nature.
To all the adventurers, the mountaineers, the ski enthusiasts, and the brave souls in public safety – the future is bright, and it's (thermally) warmer than you think. Your journey into the mountains will soon be guided by more than just instinct or tradition; it will be enlightened by the cutting-edge insights of drone technology.
And here's a thought to carry with you - 'In the world of avalanche safety, drones are not just an addition; they are a transformation. As pivotal as the iPhone was to communication, these aerial work-bots are similar, and amazingly, will be able assist us to better understand and interact with more of the natural world!
